[ARTICLE] If oil disappeared tomorrow…
Haitham Al Ghais, OPEC Secretary-General
If oil disappeared tomorrow, there would be no more gasoline, diesel, or jet fuel. Internal combustion engine automobiles, buses and minibuses, trucks, and trailers would come to a standstill. Airplanes powered by jet fuel would remain on the ground. Diesel-powered freight and passenger trains would no longer run. People would not be able to get to work and children would not be able to get to school. The shipping industry, which transports both cargo and passengers, would be severely affected.
There would be no point in calling emergency services. Most ambulances, fire engines, police cars, rescue helicopters and other emergency vehicles would remain parked. Most telephones and computers would also disappear, as their plastic components are derived from oil, so it would be hard to find a way to communicate with the emergency services.
The construction sector would shut down since diesel-powered vehicles would be inoperative: excavators, bulldozers, dump trucks, cranes, cement mixers, rollers, and compact loaders would remain idle. New houses or buildings could not be built and would not receive the maintenance required.
If oil disappeared tomorrow, oil-based products would disappear with it. This would affect the production of electric vehicles (EVs). In addition to the disruption of supply chains, the structure of lithium-ion batteries would be affected. A lithium-ion battery has four parts: an anode, a cathode, an electrolyte, and a separator. Separators are engineered microporous membranes, usually made from polyethylene or polypropylene, petroleum-based products. The petroleum-derived synthetic rubber used in car and bicycle tires would cease to exist.
If oil disappeared tomorrow, the effect on food production would be devastating. Many of the vehicles needed for agriculture – tractors, lawnmowers, harvesters, balers, sprayers, and seeders – would stop working. Food packaging, necessary for storage and preservation, would no longer be available. Petroleum coke, a by-product of oil refining, is used as a raw material in manufacturing synthetic fertilizers, which are important for increasing crop yields. This would probably trigger a food shortage with many consequences.
If oil disappeared tomorrow, it would be catastrophic for health services around the world. Staff would have no mobility and essential equipment would be unavailable. Beyond the transportation sector, oil is an essential raw material for pharmaceuticals, plastics, and medical supplies.
Latex gloves, medical tubes, medical syringes, adhesives, some dressings, disinfectants, hand sanitizers, cleaning agents, prosthetics, artificial heart valves, resuscitation masks, stethoscopes, MRI scanners, insulin pens, infusion bags, medication packaging, face masks, and personal protection equipment are largely derived from petroleum-based materials. Equipment used in medical research, such as microscopes, test tubes and goggles, often contain petroleum-derived components.
The chemical synthesis that creates aspirin begins with benzene, which is derived from petroleum. Benzene is converted into phenol, which in turn is converted into salicylic acid, which is then transformed into acetylsalicylic acid, which the world knows as aspirin.
It is hard to conceive of a modern hospital without this range of essential petroleum products.
If oil disappeared tomorrow, the renewables sector would be largely affected. The fiberglass, resin or plastic needed to build most wind turbines would disappear. The ethylene used in the production of solar panels would cease to exist. Most of the mining vehicles – large trucks, rotary drills, and rock drills – needed to extract the essential minerals on which the production of solar photovoltaic plants, wind farms and electric vehicles depends, would become stationary.
If oil disappeared tomorrow, houses would become unrecognizable. Roofs could collapse, for example, if bitumen were an essential product. Other materials used to insulate homes would disappear. If you relied on heating oil to keep warm, it would disappear. Linoleum flooring and tiles would be affected. Painting the walls would be a challenge. Furniture, pillows, rugs, curtains, plates, cups, and non-stick pans are often also made from petroleum-derived products.
If oil disappeared tomorrow, it would be a challenge to stay clean or keep homes clean. Laundry and dishwashing detergents are generally derived from petroleum-based products. Soap, toothpaste, hand lotion, deodorant, shampoo, shaving cream, glasses, contact lenses, combs, and brushes all contain petroleum-based products.
It would be a struggle to get anywhere since the asphalt that paves roads and sidewalks would disappear.
If oil disappeared tomorrow, millions of jobs would be lost. Tax revenues would be reduced. Industrial production would suffer. Economic growth would go backwards. The situation of the population in need of fuel would be exacerbated.
This is not even the full list of everything that would be affected in such an unthinkable scenario.
However, despite these realities, there are calls to “stop oil”, “leave it in the ground” or “stop investing in new oil and gas projects”.
Of course, everyone wants to see greenhouse gas emissions reduced. OPEC believes that technological solutions and efficiency improvements can play a key role. The oil sector is already proactive in this regard.
We need to be cautious not to jeopardize the present in the name of saving the future. It is important we all fully understand the immense benefits that oil and oil-derived products continue to bring to people and nations worldwide.